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基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

美国前国家经济委员会主任、乔治·布什的首席经济顾问Keith Hennessey

 
 
 

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总统的新的刺激方案  

2009-11-27 19:52:25|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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 [点击查看Keith Hennessey的英文博客]  

总统有新的经济刺激方案!福克斯商业/福克斯新闻的Stuart Varney是唯一一个报道此消息的吗?

以下是总统于星期五在玫瑰园所说的:

2009年11月27日 - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

我们也会在今日我所签署的措施的基础上,加紧脚步,以在未来发展我们的经济。为了这个目的,我的经济团队考虑着以下的主意,比如:在我们老化的道路和桥梁上投入更多资金;给家庭和企业的高效节能建设予以更多的激励;对企业更多的减税,以增加就业机会;更多的措施,以增加对小企业的信贷流量;

从一个匿名的白宫资深顾问走漏出此消息,这将是一个试探性言论。不论是加了什么附加性说明(比如:“我的经济团队考虑着以下的主意”),当乔伯斯日(每月例行工作汇报日)总统在玫瑰园宣读着他准备好的发言稿时,这其实就是一个提案。他说:“我们将……建设”,那就是目标明确的。这是一个有意为之的信号,而令人吃惊的是,几乎没有人报道了此事。

如果我漏过了某个新闻报道,请提醒我,我将会给与适当的赞扬。

总统提出了一个包含5个条目的明确的清单,对比他和国会会员现在所筹划的:

1、  更多的交通开支;

2、  对节能高效设施更多激励;

3、  (可能会有)一个新的雇佣税收减免;

4、  增加一些小型企业的有效贷款;

5、  和一些针对贸易的未指明的措施。

基础设施的花费是很慢的。我很怀疑还有多少高效节能的激励可以留给补贴。我认为它们(对高效节能的激励)已经到达顶点了。格雷格·曼昆已显示出:为什么很难设计出一个新的、有效的雇佣税收减免方案。我也抱着最大的兴趣想看看他们所建议的:“以积极的议程促进出口,帮助美国的制造业”。至今为止,对贸易事务,本届政府一直缄默不言。我希望他们不要区别地对待制造业和服务型企业。纵然它是一个好的政策,但几乎没有一个好的经济学理由可以支持它。

为什么总统要这样做呢?可能是因为以下的一条或多条缘由:

·经济情势的坏消息意味着:他认为他应该(再次)拉动短期财政政策的杠杆。

·经济情势的坏消息意味着:他认为他似乎应该做点事儿,尽管实际上宏观政策收效甚微。

·国会议员们曾私底下告诉他,无论他是否支持,他们也要再多干点事儿,而他想要“先行一步”。

上述的提案似乎是第二和第三项解释相结合的后果。这使人联想起汽油高峰时期,人们争相寻求短期的解决之道的情形。他们认为,不能站在那儿发呆,得行动起来、找点事儿干。

总统提议经济刺激方案3,又发动了刺激方案2的签署,这是在给国会开绿灯。民主党的大多数将不得不决定是否抵消这些政策带来的赤字增加。有人或许会认为,财政刺激妨碍了抵消赤字的影响;但是,由于财政刺激主要是即时性的操作,你大可以在未来的几年内削减其他地方的开支(或者增加税收)以使得近期的提案刺激经济,并在时间的推移中使得赤字得以中立地影响经济。我想知道的是,当大多数人要求坚持量入为出准则(PAYGO rules)时,会发生什么事情?

在理论上,上述的提案不大可能会带来显著的宏观经济利益的。我认为此次的刺激方案极有可能远比第一次刺激效率低。国会议员们会修改这个提案吗?或者,他们会不会提出他们自己的方案而联合反对此次的方案?

失业率超过10%,利率贴近于零,庞大的预算赤字,而低挂的刺激效果已经过去了,(这种形势下)很难有什么好的选择。这样说是有点儿难听。

(翻译纠错。读者发现任何翻译错误请发邮件给我们,谢谢:caijingblog#126.com 将#改为@)

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英文原文(地址:http://keithhennessey.com/2009/11/10/third-stimulus/):

The President’s new stimulus proposal

Posted on November 10th, 2009 by kbh in budget, economy, featured, taxes  

2009年11月27日 - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

Was Stuart Varney of Fox Business / Fox News the only one to report the President’s new stimulus proposal?

Here is the President speaking last Friday in the Rose Garden:

We will also build on the measure I signed today with further steps to grow our economy in the future.  To that end my economic team is looking at ideas such as additional investments in our aging roads and bridges, incentives to encourage families and businesses to make buildings more energy-efficient, additional tax cuts for businesses to create jobs, additional steps to increase the flow of credit to small businesses, and an aggressive agenda to promote exports and help American manufacturers sell their products around the world.

Leaked from an anonymous White House senior advisor, this would be a trial balloon.  When the President reads it from prepared remarks in the Rose Garden on Jobs Day, this is a proposal, no matter what caveats are wrapped around it (e.g., “my economic team is looking at ideas such as …”).  He said “We will … build.”  That’s definitive.  This is an intentional signal, and it’s stunning that almost no one has reported it.

If I have missed coverage, please alert me and I will give appropriate credit.

The President gave a specific list of five items against which he and the Congress will now be measured:

  1. more highway spending;
  2. more energy-efficiency incentives;-
  3. (probably) a new hires tax credit;
  4. some form of increase in small business loan availability;
  5. and something unspecified on trade.

Infrastructure spending is sl-o-o-w.  I’m surprised there are any energy-efficiency incentives left to be subsidized.  I thought they were all maxed out.  Greg Mankiw has shown why it’s hard to design an effective and efficient new hires tax credit.  I am most interested to see what “aggressive agenda to promote exports and help American manufacturers” they propose.  This Administration has been almost silent on trade so far.  I hope they don’t treat manufacturers and service firms differently.  While it’s good politics, there’s rarely a good economic reason for it.

Why did the President do this?  Choose one or more:

  • Bad economic news means he thinks he needs to pull hard (again) on the short-term fiscal policy lever.
  • Bad economic news means he thinks he needs to look like he’s doing something, even if the actual macro policy impact is trivial.
  • Congress has told him privately they’re going to do something more whether he wants it or not, and he’s trying to “get ahead of it.”

The above package looks like the result of a combination of the second and third explanations.  It’s reminiscent of when gasoline spikes and everyone scrambles looking for short-term solutions.  Don’t just stand there, do something, they argue.

The President’s proposal for stimulus #3, launched upon the signing of stimulus #2, gives Congress a green light.  The Democratic majority will have to decide whether to offset the deficit increase of these policies.  Someone will probably argue that fiscal stimulus precludes offsetting the deficit impact, but since fiscal stimulus is mostly a timing exercise, you can cut other spending (or raise taxes) in the out years and make the proposal stimulative in the near term and deficit-neutral over time.  What, I wonder, will happen to the majority’s claimed adherence to PAYGO rules?

In the abstract, the above package is unlikely to have a noticeable short-run macroeconomic benefit.  I think it’s likely to be even less effective and more inefficient than the first stimulus.  Will Congressional R’s try to fix this package, or propose their own and unite in opposition to this one?

With the unemployment rate above 10%, near-zero interest rates, enormous budget deficits, and the low-hanging stimulus fruit already plucked, there are few good options.  This could get a bit ugly.

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