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基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

美国前国家经济委员会主任、乔治·布什的首席经济顾问Keith Hennessey

 
 
 

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对美国第一季度GDP数据的认识  

2009-07-09 08:27:45|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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东方汇美2009629在经济预算税款专题中报道

上星期三商业部公布了美国第一季度国内生产总值的数据,数据表明,本年第一季度国内生产总值减少5.5%(其中不把通货膨胀计算在内,因此我们正计算GDP的真正增长率),并不意味着该季度GDP减少5.5%,而是表明该减少幅度如果持续一整年,可能导致该年度的GDP减少5.5%。如果经济情况运行良好,每年的的增长率要稍微大于3%,最近一段时间的经济增长率为8%多一点,比第一季度的稍低。

我认为认识GDP的主要经济元素的运行过程很有用的,下面的曲线图能够帮助我们认识这一点。这种版式是我当时在白宫专门为自己设计的,现在我愿意和你共享这个版式,请耐心等待-在曲线图上有很多信息,习惯上要花费些功夫。以下时内容摘要:

  • 表示GDP份额的条形宽度
  • 表示增长率的条形高度,在该条形上面或下面用白色数字表明增长率。
  • 条形内的黑色数字表示各经济元素对总增长率–5.5%的影响
  • 私人存货和进口货需要特别说明。

Components of GP Growth for Q1 2009

 

最宽的条形代表消耗量,购买原料大约需要消耗GDP70%,现在需要72% 这样可以解释经济学家和市场预测者如此关心消费措施的原因。如果消费增长平稳,经济就会增长。你可以从这个图表上看出第一季度消费增长率为1.4% 由于72%的经济消费促进了1.4%增长率的成倍增长,绿色条形中的黑色数字就增加+1.0个百分点,消费者为年经济增长率贡献了1.0%,剩下的图表中减去6.5个百分点,最后增长率为–5.5%

第一季度企业投资和住宅建设停滞不前,分别缩减37% 39%,这是很可怕的数字。自从企业投资大约占GDP11%以后,住宅建设大约仅占3% 你可以看到企业投资从总增长率中占去了4.6个百分点,住宅建设占去了1.4个百分点。人们在普遍关注住宅建设的同时,不要忽视企业投资下滑的巨大影响。

世界经济中的大部分都在衰退, 其它国家的人们不想购买我们的原料,所以我们的出口垂直下滑31% 同样, 我们不从其它国家购买原料,致使我们的进口下降36%。根据GDP的计算方法, 存货降低就会促使GDP增长,这是本图表版式的一大缺陷-由于进口可以促进GDP增长,所以我把表示进口的条形放在正数区域内,而进口货实际上在减少。对于在视觉上对该工作进行改进的建议,我很欣赏。实际效果是出口货物的减少可以抵消进口货物的减少,那么净出口(出口货-进口货)可以为第一季度GDP的增长贡献2.4个百分点。

比较糟糕的消息是出现了负面的存货投资,从而使总经济增长率减少了2.2个百分点,令人高兴的消息是私人存货的分配出现了循环迹象。当存货用完后,最终有必要恢复这些存货,所以当其他经济拉动因素(如住宅建设)能够持续一时,我希望粉红色的椭圆形能最终返回到正数区域。

从整个图来看,对于第一季度来说,如果不出意料,经济是衰退的,假若没有消费者的持续消费,情况会变得更加糟糕。

刺激经济法律会最终起效,从而使代表政府开支的橙色条形上升到正数范围, 税码改变和扩大的失业救济保险金对于绿色消费条形起到一些积极作用。

63日撰文写到, 在制定经济刺激计划和向总统提供政策取向时,奥巴马政府犯了一个巨大的错误 根据上图橙色条形显示的内容,他们正通过政府渠道推出大部分资金,问题是这些资金花费的速度慢得惊人,所以到今年(最早)第四季度橙色条形不会有明显上升。

他们应该把所有资金投向消费者,只要把787美元用在福利待遇上,消费者应该存蓄这些资金的一半数额以上。如果消费者只花费了资金的三分之一,你会看到图上绿色条形从第二季度开始到第二季度(现在)甚至到第三第四季度会出现显著上升,刺激消费会导致一部分资金促进GDP的进一步上升,但是常常会造成比通过政府官僚推出资金要快得多的现象,允许他们的民主议会同盟通过政府计划制定美元刺激计划,他们不需把大部分积极地经济利益推迟到下一年。

我们希望第二季度的数字不会更糟糕,我们会在7月份即下周看到第一组数据,不论结果如何,他们将在很大程度上不受经济刺激计划的影响, 虽然这种经济刺激计划已经起到很小的积极作用,最令人担心的是劳动力市场持续下滑,在经济的其它方面恢复之前导致消费出现负增长的现象。

 

(翻译纠错。读者发现任何翻译错误请发邮件给我们,谢谢:caijingblog#126.com 将#改为@)


英文原文(地址:http://keithhennessey.com/2009/06/29/q1-gdp/ ):

Understanding first quarter GDP

Last Wednesday the Commerce Department released their final data for first quarter (Q1) U.S. GDP.  GDP shrank at a 5.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter of this year.  (This takes inflation out of the calculations, so we’re measuring the growth of real GDP.)  That doesn’t mean it shrank 5.5% that quarter.  It means that it shrank at a rate that, if extended through a whole year, would cause GDP to shrink 5.5% over the course of that year.  If the economy is performing well, it’s growing a little faster than 3% per year.  We were more than eight percentage points below that in the first quarter of this year.

I find it useful to understand how the major components of GDP are performing.  The graph below allows us to do that.  I created this format while in the White House for my own use, and now I’d like to share it with you.  Please bear with me – there’s a lot of information in one graph, and it may take some getting used to.  Here’s the summary:

  • The width of each component bar represents its share of GDP.
  • The height represents the growth rate of that component.  This growth rate is labeled in white immediately above or below that bar.
  • The black number within the bar shows that component’s contribution to the overall growth rate of –5.5%
  • Private inventories and Imports require special explanation.

Components of GP Growth for Q1 2009

Consumption is the widest bar.  People buying stuff to consume accounts for, on average, about 70% of GDP.  Right now it’s 72%.  This explains why economists and market forecasters care so much about measures of consumption.  If consumption grows modestly, the economy will grow.  You can see from this graph that consumption grew at a 1.4% rate in Q1.  Multiply 1.4% by 72% of the economy, and you get +1.0 percentage points of GDP, the number in black within the green bar.  Consumers contributed to a positive 1.0% annual growth rate, while the rest of the picture subtracted 6.5 percentage points, resulting in a net –5.5%.

The bottom fell out of both business investment and housing in Q1, shrinking at rates of 37% and 39% respectively.  Those are disastrous numbers.  Since business investment accounts for about 11% of GDP, and housing only about 3%, you can see that the decline in business investments took 4.6 percentage points off the aggregate growth rate, while housing knocked off another 1.4 percentage points.  While everyone focuses on housing, we shouldn’t lose sight of the much larger effect of plummeting business investment.

Most of the world economy is shrinking.  People in other countries don’t want to buy our stuff, so our exports plummeted at a 31% rate.  Similarly, we’re not buying stuff from other countries, so our imports declined 36%.  Because of the way GDP arithmetic works, a decline in inventories adds to GDP growth.  This is the one big flaw in this graph format – I put the imports bar in positive territory because it adds to GDP growth, but imports actually shrank.  I’d appreciate suggestions on how to make this work better visually.  The net effect is that the decline in exports was more than offset by the decline in imports, so the effect of net exports (exports – imports) actually contributed 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1.

The bad news is that inventory investment was negative, subtracting 2.2 percentage points to the overall growth rate.  The good news is that the change in private inventories contribution tends to be cyclical.  As inventories get drawn down, there eventually is a need to rebuild those inventories.  So while other drags (like housing) could continue for a while, I would expect that the pink oval will eventually move back into positive territory.

The overall picture is for Q1 was, unsurprisingly, bleak.  Were it not for the consumer still continuing to spend, things would have been even worse.

The stimulus law will effect this eventually by raising that orange bar, government spending, into positive territory.  The tax code changes and expanded unemployment insurance benefits have a small positive effect on the green consumption bar.

I wrote on June 3rd that I thought the Obama Administration made a huge mistake in the way they designed the stimulus, even given the President’s policy preferences.  They’re pushing most of the money out through the government channel, represented by the orange bar above.  The problem is that these dollars spend out incredibly slowly, and so the orange bar won’t be boosted significantly until Q4 of this year (at the earliest).

They should have pumped all the money out to consumers.  Consumers would have saved more than half of those funds, but given that it was a $787 B package, if consumers spent only one-third that amount, you would have seen an immediate and significant upward bump in the green bar, beginning at the end of Q2 (now), and into Q3 and Q4.  Stimulating consumption results in only a portion of the dollars going to higher GDP growth, but it happens much more quickly than trying to force money out the door through government bureaucracies.  By allowing their Democratic Congressional allies to funnel stimulus dollars through government programs, they unnecessarily delayed the bulk of the positive economic benefit until next year.

Let’s hope the Q2 numbers are less bad.  We will see the first data in the last week of July.  Whatever the results, they will be largely independent of the stimulus, which is having only a small positive effect even now.  The scary scenario is the one where the labor market continues to decline, and that causes consumption to go negative before the other sectors have time to recover.

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