注册 登录  
 加关注
   显示下一条  |  关闭
温馨提示!由于新浪微博认证机制调整,您的新浪微博帐号绑定已过期,请重新绑定!立即重新绑定新浪微博》  |  关闭

基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

美国前国家经济委员会主任、乔治·布什的首席经济顾问Keith Hennessey

 
 
 

日志

 
 
关于我

美国前国家经济委员会主任

文章分类
网易考拉推荐

“我们将要复苏”  

2009-10-24 16:40:59|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

  下载LOFTER 我的照片书  |

 

[点击查看Keith Hennessey的英文博客]

以下是总统8月7日在玫瑰园的说的:

    “今天早上,我们收到另一个迹象:最糟糕的情况已经过去了。……如今,我们正朝着正确的方向前进。我们的失业率是我刚上任时的一半。”

 “我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

9月24日,在和诸州长的一次电话会议中,副总统拜登说道:

    “在我最狂想的梦中,我也不敢想象(刺激方案)会起这么大的效果……”

上周五是乔伯斯日(Jobs Day),每月一次的劳工报告基本上都被当做坏消息。上周五副总统谈到:

    “……现在,我们获悉到,我们还有一大堆工作要做,还有很漫长的道路在前方。

我们刚获知,上个月的失业人数下降到263000,失业率小幅上涨千分之一。而现在—现在的情况明确地表明,在我们的政策之下,总体情况已经得到改善。今年的第一个季度,平均每个月,我们的失业人数是700000。伴随着本周的结束,此一季度,每月失业人数是250000,少了三分之二。

但是,我们也知道,自始至终,复苏将会需要许多时间

……我们不会把“不算太糟”当做好的。“不算太糟”不是我们成功的标准。哪怕丢掉一个工作,也会显得太多,太不可承受。在美国,还有太多努力工作却得不到薪酬的人,还有太多家庭在挣扎度日。

尽管复苏的前景代替了对萧条的恐惧,但是,(正如Christy刚才所说)只有当我们站在这儿、宣告就业率出现正的增长时,我和总统努力营造的复苏才会真正到来。

……而我相信,我们正在做着正确的事情,走在正确的道路上。

……我们面对的(正如我们承诺过、经历过的)过程既有顶峰,也有低谷。通往复苏之路的并不是一条笔直的康庄大道。但是我们正在迎来复苏,我们将要复苏。”

本届政府早在8月初,过早地宣称获得部分的胜利。总统不应该在那时言过其实地说经济正“走向正确的方向”。在就业率没有上升前,副总统也不该宣告刺激方案已经起了作用,而只能说,如果不刺激的话情况只会更糟。

以前我就指出过这一点,但是它很关键,而总统语气的转变也太明显了。因此,我要再一次指出它。让我们先看一些图表。(这些枯燥的表格只是暂时的,稍后再来评论这一点。)  本届政府凭借这张图表错误地获得了一些信息:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

 

黄色的椭圆显示的时间是,总统说“我们正朝着正确的方向”的时候。你可以看到绿线朝着上方升起。哪一个才是好的,对吗?(错)

红色的椭圆指示着上个星期五。因为绿线正在下跌,所以副总统把复苏之说改成将来时态:“我们不要以为‘不算太糟’就是良好。我们将会复苏。”

这张图表显示出几个月之间就业率的改变,因此它的水平趋势(而不是绿线的斜率)更重要。如果图表中的线向上移动,就是“不算太糟”。只有当绿线上升穿过水平轴、进入正轴时,情况才变得良好。那时,说明美国正在创造新的工作岗位。

这条绿线的斜率显示出改变的速度。你就明白了为什么政府和他们的顾问会在黄色椭圆处,宣告好听的消息。但事实上,他们不应该那样做。让我们看看图表的关键点,显示就业数量的水平轴。有多少人得以保有工作?我们还是从历史上观察,先回顾一下2001年的一月份的情况:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

上面的水平图中,绿线的斜率显示出极有用处的信息:向上的斜率意味着经济在创作新的工作岗位,而向下的斜率则意味着经济体中正在失去工作岗位。你可以在图中的顶峰,也就是07年12月开始,美国经经济开始增加失业。现在让我们放大2009年的图标:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

 

注意观察一下被箭头标示出来的三条线段的斜率的微小差异。紫色箭头所指的线段的向下的倾斜程度小于黄色箭头所指线段的斜率。数学家会说从黄色到紫色的转变是个拐点,曲线由凸变凹。

这一点导致了总统在8月初宣称经济“整朝着正确的方向”。红色的箭头显示出上周五工作报告的坏消息,线条向下得更陡峭。曲线又变回凸起状,朝下的斜率比起上个月也更陡峭。

如果你说:“这简直太荒谬了!这部一直朝下嘛,斜率间的不同太微小了,以至于无法看见!”那么你就明白我的意思了(总统言过其实的宣告乐观消息)。

该线条显示出,那些一直保有工作的人数正不断减少。这才是问题关键之所在。斜率微小的改变和总统的言论其实不符。当他做出这种发言时,他营造了一种错误的印象。而一旦数据重新改变,他就不得不再一次改变他的发言,就像上周五政府所作的一样。

当你纵览2001-2009年的历史数据时,这一点表现地极其明显。过去几个月中,线条向下斜率的改变实在说明不了什么问题。

只要就业水平一直下降,情况就仍然很糟糕。由于住宅与商业投资的拉动作用逐渐消减,存货商品会暂时繁荣一阵,刺激方案的开支起作用,第三季度的GDP数字将可能十分好看。

但是消费性支出占GDP的70%。而决定人们增加消费的最重要的因素是:(1)他们是否有工作,和(2)他们的薪水是否上涨?只要就业率持续下降,我们就没有脱离经济低迷期。请记住,我们的经济体要每月创造10万到15万工作岗位才能跟上人口增长和失业增长的脚步。最令人恐慌的是,政府自己对未来的预测,是一片低迷的就业形势,踏入2010年时,失业率将比今年高9个百分比。没有人敢预言未来将形势大好。

当总统和他的团队对就业形势保持乐观态度时,他其实言之过早了。就业形势将会复苏,但我们还远未达到那个地步。

 

(翻译纠错。读者发现任何翻译错误请发邮件给我们,谢谢:caijingblog#126.com 将#改为@)

------------------------------------------------------

英文原文(地址:http://keithhennessey.com/2009/10/06/we-will-recover/):

“We WILL recover”

Posted on October 6th, 2009 by kbh in Blog format, economy, featured  

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

Here’s the President on August 7 in the Rose Garden:

This morning, we received additional signs that the worst may be behind us. … Today we’re pointed in the right direction. We’re losing jobs at less than half the rate we were when I took office.

In a September 24th conference call with the Governors, Vice President Biden said:

In my wildest dreams I never thought [the stimulus] would work this well …

Last Friday was Jobs Day, and the monthly employment report was generally regarded as bad news.  Last Friday the VP said:

… today we learned we still have a whole lot more work to do, and a long way to go before we get there.

We just learned that unemployment fell by 263,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate ticked up one-tenth of 1 percent.  And now — now it’s true that this reflects an improvement of overall things based on the results of our policy.  The first quarter of this year, we were losing jobs at an aWeverage of 700,000 jobs per month, month after month.  In the quarter that ended this week, the loss was 250,000 jobs per month, two-thirds less.

But we also have known all along that the recovery was going to take a long time.

… We don’t think that “less bad” is good.  “Less bad” is not our measure of success. One job lost is one job too many, and it’s still too much pain.  There’s still too many hard-working Americans without a paycheck, still too many families struggling to get by.

And while the fears of a depression have been replaced by forecasts of recovery, the kind of recovery the President and I are working to create will not have been achieved — and as Christy was saying a moment ago — until we’re standing here and announcing substantial positive numbers, a positive growth rate in jobs.

… And I believe we’re doing the right things to move things in the right direction.

… And we’re up against — we are committed, as we go through, there will be peaks and valleys in this process.  This is not a straight line to recovery, but we are recovering.  We will recover.

The Administration made a mistake taking a premature partial victory lap in early August.  The President should not then have said the economy was “headed in the right direction” when it wasn’t, and the Vice President should not have declared the stimulus is working when he cannot prove it by showing job gains, but instead only claim that job losses would have been worse without the stimulus.

I have hit this point before, but it’s important, and the shift in tone is noticeable, so I’m going to cover it again.  Let’s look at some graphs.  (Cool chalkboard formatting is on temporary hold, to return later.)

Here’s the graph the Administration was mistakenly using to drive their oscillating message:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

The yellow oval is when the President said “we’re pointed in the right direction.”  You can see the green line is pointed up, which is good, right?  (Wrong)

The red oval is last Friday.  Because this line is pointed down, the Vice President reverted to the future tense:  “We don’t think less bad is good.  We will recover.”

But this graph shows the change in employment from one month to the next, so it’s the level of the graph that matters, not the slope of the line.  If the line on the above graph is moving up, things are “less bad.”  Things only become “good” when this line, the change in employment, crosses the horizontal axis into positive territory.  That’s when the U.S. economy is creawting net new jobs.

The slope of this line shows the rate of change of the rate of change.  You can understand why an elected official or his advisors would want to declare good news at the yellow oval.  but they should not have done so.

Let’s look at the graph that matters, showing the levels of employment.  How many people are working?  We’ll start with the historic perspective, going back to January 2001:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

On the above graph of levels, the slope of the line provides useful information:  an upward slope means the economy is creating jobs, and a downward slope means the economy is losing jobs.  You can see the U.S. economy has been losing jobs since this graph peaked in December 07.  Now let’s zoom in on 2009:

“我们将要复苏” - hennessey - 基思·亨尼西(Hennessey)的博客

Check out the slightly different slopes of the three line segments indicated by arrows.  The purple arrow shows a segment that slopes downward slightly less than the yellow arrow.  A mathematician would say the shift from yellow to purple was an inflection point, shifting the curve from convex to concave.

This is what led the President in early August to say the economy was “pointed in the right direction.”  The red arrow shows the worse news of last Friday’s jobs report, with a line that slopes downward slightly more sharply.  The curve shifted back to a convex shape, in which the slope was more sharply downward than in the prior month.

If you’re saying to yourself, “That’s ridiculous!  They’re all going down, and the differences in slopes are almost too hard to see!” then you’ve got my point.

The line that represents how many people are working continues to decline.  That’s what matters.  Trivial changes in the slope of the line are not worthy of Presidential comment.  When he does comment on them, he creates a faulty impression and exposes himself to the risk that the number will again change and force him to change his message, as the Administration had to do last Friday.

This becomes crystal clear if you return to the historic graph that shows 2001-2009.  The changes in the downward sloping line over the past few months look and are trivial.

As long as the level of employment continues to decline, things are still bad.  Third quarter GDP numbers will probably look pretty good, as the drags from housing and business investment wear off, inventory numbers get a temporary boost, and the stimulus spending kicks in.

But consumer spending is 70% of GDP, and the most important determinants of whether people increase their consumption are (1) do they have jobs and (2) are their paychecks going up?  As long as employment continues to decline, we’re not out of the woods.  Remember that the economy needs to create about 100K – 150K jobs per month to keep up with population growth and keep the unemployment rate constant.  The scary part is that the Administration’s own forecast shows a gloomy employment picture through this year and into next year with the unemployment rate in the high 9’s through 2010.  Good thing no one can predict that far into the future.

The President jumped the gun in early August when he and his team started taking an optimistic tone toward the employment picture.  The employment picture will recover, but we’re not there yet.

  评论这张
 
阅读(9943)| 评论(14)
推荐 转载

历史上的今天

评论

<#--最新日志,群博日志--> <#--推荐日志--> <#--引用记录--> <#--博主推荐--> <#--随机阅读--> <#--首页推荐--> <#--历史上的今天--> <#--被推荐日志--> <#--上一篇,下一篇--> <#-- 热度 --> <#-- 网易新闻广告 --> <#--右边模块结构--> <#--评论模块结构--> <#--引用模块结构--> <#--博主发起的投票-->
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

页脚

网易公司版权所有 ©1997-2017